Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un just met and signed a deal committing North Korea to nuclear disarmament. Yay! Problem solved!
Except that there’s a long historical precedent of North Korea signing deals just like this one, only to immediately go back on them. Here’s a timeline for some relevant historical context.
1985: North Korea signs Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty
1992: North Korea signs historic agreement to halt nuclear program! (#1)
1993: North Korea is found to be cheating on its commitments under the NPT
1994: In exchange for US assistance in production of proliferation-free nuclear power plants, North Korea signs historic agreement to halt nuclear program! (#2)
1998: North Korea is suspected of having an underground nuclear facility
1998: North Korea launches missile tests over Japan
1999: North Korea signs historic agreement to end missile tests, in exchange for a partial lifting of economic sanctions by the US.
2000: North Korea signs historic agreement to reunify Korea! Nobel Peace Prize is awarded
2002-2003: North Korea admits to having a secret nuclear weapons program, and withdraws from the NPT
2004: North Korea allows an unofficial US delegation to visit its nuclear facilities to display a working nuclear weapon
2005: In exchange for economic and energy assistance, North Korea signs historic agreement to halt nuclear program and denuclearize! (#3)
2006: North Korea fires seven ballistic missiles and conducts an underground nuclear test
2006: North Korea declares support for denuclearization of Korean peninsula
2006: North Korea again supports denuclearization of Korean peninsula
2007: In exchange for energy aid from the US, North Korea signs historic agreement to halt nuclear program! (#4)
2007: N&S Korea sign agreement on reunification
2009: North Korea issues a statement outlining a plan to weaponize newly separated plutonium
2010: North Korea threatens war with South Korea
2010: North Korea again announces commitment to denuclearize
2011: North Korea announces plan to halt nuclear and missile tests
2012: North Korea announces halt to nuclear program
2013: North Korea announces intentions to conduct more nuclear tests
2014: North Korea test fires 30 short-range rockets, as well as two medium missiles into the Sea of Japan
2015: North Korea offers to halt nuclear tests
2016: North Korea announces that it has detonated a hydrogen bomb
2016: North Korea again announces support for denuclearization
2017: North Korea conducts its sixth nuclear test
2018: Kim Jong Un announces that North Korea will mass produce nuclear warheads and ballistic missiles for deployment
2018: In exchange for the cancellation of US-South Korea military exercises, North Korea, once again, commits to “work toward complete denuclearization on the Korean peninsula”
Maybe this time is really, truly different. But our priors should be informed by history, and history tell us that it’s almost certainly not.