A few years ago, Scott Aaronson and a student of his published this paper, in which they demonstrate the existence of a 7918 state Turing machine whose behavior is independent of ZFC. In particular, whether the machine halts or not can not be proven by ZFC. This entails that ZFC cannot prove the value of BB(7918) – the number of steps taken by the longest running Turing machine with 7918 states before halting. And since ZFC is a first order theory and first order logic is complete, the unprovability of the value entails that BB(7918) actually has *different values* in different models of the axioms! So ZFC does not semantically entail its value, which is to say that ZFC *underdetermines* the Busy Beaver numbers!

This might sound really surprising. After all, the Busy Beaver numbers are a well-defined sequence. There are a finite number of N-state Turing machines, some subset of which are finitely-running. Just look at the number of steps that the longest-running of these goes for, and that’s BB(N). It’s one thing to say that this value is impossible to *prove*, but what could it mean for this value to be *underdetermined* *by* the standard axioms of math? Are there some valid versions of math in which this machine runs for different amounts of time than others? But how could this be? Couldn’t we *in principle* build the Turing machine in the real world and just *observe* exactly how long it runs for? And if we did this, then we certainly shouldn’t expect to get an indeterminate answer. So what gives?

Well, first of all, the existence of a machine like Aaronson and Yedidia’s is actually not a surprise. For any consistent theory T whose axioms are recursively enumerable, one can build a Turing machine M that enumerates all the syntactic consequences of the axioms and halts if it ever finds a contradiction. That is, M simply starts with the axioms, and repeatedly applies modus ponens and the other inference rules of T’s logic until it reaches a contradiction. Now, if T is strong enough to talk about the natural numbers, then it cannot prove whether or not M halts. This is a result of Gödel’s Second Incompleteness Theorem: If T could prove the behavior of M, then it could prove its own consistency, which would entail that it is inconsistent. This means that *no* consistent formal theory will be capable of proving all the values of the Busy Beaver numbers; for any theory T there will always be some number N for which the value of BB(N) is in principle impossible to derive from T.

On the other hand, this *does not* entail that the Busy Beaver numbers do not have definite values. This misconception arises from two confusions: (1) independence and unprovability are not the same thing, and (2) independence does not necessarily mean that there is no single right answer.

On (1): A proposition P is independent of T if there are models of T in which P is true and other models in which it is false. P is unprovable from T if… well, if it can’t be proved from the axioms of T. Notice that independence is a *semantic* concept (having to do with the different models of a theory), while unprovability is a *syntactic* one (having only to do with what you can prove using the rules of syntax in T). Those two are equivalent in first order logic, but only because it’s a complete logic: Anything that’s true in all models of a first-order theory is provable from its axioms, so if you can’t prove P from T’s axioms, then P cannot be true in all models; i.e. P is independent. Said another way, first-order theories’ semantic consequences are all also syntactic consequences.

But this is not so in second-order logic! In a second-order theory T, X can be unprovable from T but still true in all models of T. There is a *gap* between the semantic and the syntactic, and therefore there is a corresponding gap between independence and unprovability.

So while it’s true that the Busy Beaver numbers are independent of any first-order theory you choose, it’s not true that the Busy Beaver numbers are independent of any second-order theory that you choose. We can perfectly well believe that all the Busy Beaver numbers have unique values, which are fixed by some set of second-order axioms, and we just cannot derive the values from these axioms.

And on (2): Even the independence of the Busy Beaver numbers from any first order theory is not necessarily so troubling. We can just say that the Busy Beaver numbers do have unambiguous values, it’s just that due to first-order logic’s expressive limitations, we cannot pin down exactly the model that we want.

In other words, if BB(7918) is 𝑥 in one model and 𝑥*+1* in another, this does not have to mean that there is some deep ambiguity in the value of BB(7918). It’s just that only one of the models of your theory is the *intended* model, the one that’s *actually* talking about busy beaver numbers and Turing machines, and the other models are talking about some warped version of these concepts.

Maybe this sounds a little fishy to you. How do we know which model is the *“correct”* one if we can’t ever rule out its competitors?

Well, the inability of first order logic to get rid of these nonstandard models is actually basic feature of pretty much *any* mathematical theory. In first-order Peano arithmetic, for instance, we find that we cannot rule out models that contain an uncountable number of “natural numbers”. But we don’t then say that we do not know for sure whether or not there are an uncountable infinity of natural numbers. And we *certainly* don’t say that the cardinality of the set of natural numbers is ambiguous! We just say that unfortunately, first order logic is unable to rule out those uncountable models that *don’t actually represent natural numbers.*

If this is an acceptable response here, if you find it tempting to say that the inability of first order theories of arithmetic to pin down the cardinality of the naturals tells us *nothing whatsoever* about the natural numbers’ *actual* cardinality, then it should be equally acceptable to say of the Busy Beaver numbers that the independence of their values from any given mathematical theory tells us nothing about their actual values!