# Entropy vs relative entropy

This post is about the relationship between entropy and relative entropy. This relationship is subtle but important – purely maximizing entropy (MaxEnt) is not equivalent to Bayesian conditionalization except in special cases, while maximizing relative entropy (ME) is. In addition, the justifications for MaxEnt are beautiful and grounded in fundamental principles of normative epistemology. Do these justifications carry over to maximizing relative entropy?

To a degree, yes. We’ll see that maximizing relative entropy is a more general procedure than maximizing entropy, and reduces to it in special cases. The cases where MaxEnt gives different results from ME can be interpreted through the lens of MaxEnt, and relate to an interesting distinction between commuting and non-commuting observations.

So let’s get started!

We’ll solve three problems: first, using MaxEnt to find an optimal distribution with a single constraint C1; second, using MaxEnt to find an optimal distribution with constraints C1 and C2; and third, using ME to find the optimal distribution with C2 given the starting distribution found in the first problem.

Part 1

Problem: Maximize – ∫ P logP dx with constraints
∫ P dx = 1
∫ C1[P] dx = 0

P ( – P1 logP1 + (α + 1) P1 + βC1[P1] ) = 0
– logP1 + α + β C1’[P1] = 0

Part 2

Problem: Maximize – ∫ P logP dx with constraints
∫ P dx = 1
∫ C1[P] dx = 0
∫ C2[P] dx = 0

P ( – P2 logP2 + (α’ + 1) P2 + β’C1[P2] + λ C2[P2] ) = 0
– logP2 + α’ + β’ C1’[P2] + λ C2’[P2] = 0

Part 3

Problem: Maximize – ∫ P log(P / P1) dx with constraints
∫ P dx = 1
∫ C2[P] dx = 0

P ( – P3 logP3 + P3 logP1 + (α’’ + 1)P3 + λ’ C2[P3] ) = 0
– logP3 + α’’ + logP1 + λ’ C2’[P3] = 0
– logP3 + α’’ + α + β C1’[P1] + λ’ C2’[P3] = 0
– logP3 + α’’’ + β C1’[P1] + λ’ C2’[P3] = 0

We can now compare our answers for Part 2 to Part 3. These are the same problem, solved with MaxEnt and ME. While they are clearly different solutions, they have interesting similarities.

MaxEnt
– logP2 + α’ + β’ C1’[P2] + λ C2’[P2] = 0
∫ P2 dx = 1
∫ C1[P2] dx = 0
∫ C2[P2] dx = 0

ME
– logP3 + α’’’ + β C1’[P1] + λ’ C2’[P3] = 0
∫ P3 dx = 1
∫ C1[P1] dx = 0
∫ C2[P3] dx = 0

The equations are almost identical. The only difference is in how they treat the old constraint. In MaxEnt, the old constraint is treated just like the new constraint – a condition that must be satisfied for the final distribution.

But in ME, the old constraint is no longer required to be satisfied by the final distribution! Instead, the requirement is that the old constraint be satisfied by your initial distribution!

That is, MaxEnt takes all previous information, and treats it as current information that must constrain your current probability distribution.

On the other hand, ME treats your previous information as constraints only on your starting distribution, and only ensures that your new distribution satisfy the new constraint!

When might this be useful?

Well, say that the first piece of information you received, C1, was the expected value of some measurable quantity. Maybe it was that x̄ = 5.

But if the second piece of information C2 was an observation of the exact value of x, then we clearly no longer want our new distribution to still have an expected value of x̄. After all, it is common for the expected value of a variable to differ from the exact value of x.

Once we have found the exact value of x, all previous information relating to the value of x is screened off, and should no longer be taken as constraints on our distribution! And this is exactly what ME does, and MaxEnt fails to do.

What about a case where the old information stays relevant? For instance, an observation of the values of a certain variable is not ‘cancelled out’ by a later observation of another variable. Observations can’t be un-observed. Does ME respect these types of constraints?

Yes!

Observations of variables are represented by constraints that set the distribution over those variables to delta-functions. And when your old distribution contains a delta function, that delta function will still stick around in your new distribution, ensuring that the old constraint is still satisfied.

Pold ~ δ(x – x’)
implies
Pnew ~ δ(x – x’)

The class of observations that are made obsolete by new observations are called non-commuting observations. They are given this name because for such observations, the order in which you process the information is essential. Observations for which the order of processing doesn’t matter are called commuting observations.

In summation: maximizing relative entropy allows us to take into account subtle differences in the type of evidence we receive, such as whether or not old data is made obsolete by new data. And mathematically, maximizing relative entropy is equivalent to maximizing ordinary entropy with whatever new constraints were not included in your initial distribution, as well as an additional constraint relating to the value of your old distribution. While the old constraints are not guaranteed to be satisfied by your new distribution, the information about them is preserved in the form of the prior distribution that is a factor in the new distribution.

# Fun with Akaike

The Akaike information criterion is a metric for model quality that naturally arises from the principle of maximum entropy. It balances predictive accuracy against model complexity, encoding a formal version of Occam’s razor and solving problems of overfitting. I’m just now learning about how to use this metric, and will present a simple example that shows off a lot of the features of this framework.

Suppose that we have two coins. For each coin, we can ask what the probability is of each coin landing heads. Call these probabilities p and q.

Two classes of models are (1) those that say that p = q and (2) those that say that p ≠ q. The first class of models are simpler in an important sense – they can be characterized by a single parameter p. The second class, on the other hand, require two separate parameters, one for each coin.

The number of parameters (k) used by our model is one way to measure model complexity. But of course, we can also test our models by getting experimental data. That is, we can flip each coin a bunch of times, record the results, and see how they favor one model over another.

One common way of quantifying the empirical success of a given model is by looking at the maximum value of its likelihood function L. This is the function that tells you how likely your data was, given a particular model. If Model 2 can at best do better at predicting the data than Model 1, then this should count in favor of Model 2.

So how do we combine these pieces of information – k (the number of parameters in a model) and L (the predictive success of the model)? Akaike’s criterion says to look at the following metric:

AIK = 2k – 2 lnL

The smaller the value of this parameter, the better your model is.

So let’s apply this on an arbitrary data set:

n1 = number of times coin 1 landed heads
n2 = number of times coin 1 landed tails
m1 =number of times coin 2 landed heads
m2 = number of times coin 2 landed tails

For convenience, we’ll also call the total flips of coin 1 N, and the total flips of coin 2 M.

First, let’s look at how Model 1 (the one that says that the two coins have an equal chance of landing heads) does on this data. This model predicts with probability p each heads, on either coin, and with probability 1 – p each tails on either coin.

L1 = C(N,n1) C(M,m1) pn1+m1 (1 – p)n2+m2

The two choose functions C(N, n1) and C(M, m1) are there to ensure that this function is nicely normalized. Intuitively, they arise from the fact that any given number of coin tosses that land heads could happen in many possible, ways, and all of these ways must be summed up.

This function finds its peak value at the following value of p:

p = (n1 + m1) / (N + M)
L1,max = C(N, n1) C(M, m1) (n1 + m1)n1+m1 (n2 + m2)n2+m2 / (N + M)N+M

By Stirling’s approximation, this becomes:

ln(L1,max) ~ -ln(F) – ½ ln(G)
where F = (N + M)N+M/NNMM · n1n1m1m1/(n1 + m1)n1+m1 · n2n2m2m2/(n2 + m2)n2+m2
and G = n1n2m1m/ NM

With this, our Akaike information criterion for Model 1 tells us:

AIC= 2 + 2ln(F) + ln(G)

Moving on to Model 2, we now have two different parameters p and q to vary. The likelihood of our data given these two parameters are given by:

L2 = C(N, n1) C(M, m1) pn1 (1 – p)n2 qm1 (1 – q)m2

The values of p and q that make this data most likely are:

p = n1 / N
q = m1 / M
So L2,max = C(N, n1) C(M, m1) n1n1m1m1n2n2m2m2 / NNMM

And again, using Stirling’s approximation, we get:

ln(L1,max) ~  – ½ ln(G)
So AIC= 4 + ln(G)

We now just need to compare these two AICs to see which model is preferable for a given set of data:

AIC= 4 + ln(G)
AIC= 2 + 2ln(F) + ln(G)

AIC– AIC= 2 – 2lnF

Let’s look at two cases that are telling. The first case will be that we find that both coin 1 and coin 2 end up landing heads an equal proportion of the time, and for simplicity, both coins are tossed the same number of times. Formally:

Case 1: N = M, n1 = m1, n2 = m2

In this case, F becomes 1, so lnF becomes 0.

AIC– AIC1 = 2 > 0
So Model 1 is preferable.

This makes sense! After all, if the two coins are equally likely to land heads, then our two models do equally well at predicting the data. But Model 1 is simpler, involving only a single parameter, so it is preferable. AIC gives us a precise numerical criterion by which to judge how preferable Model 1 is!

Okay, now let’s consider a case where coin 1 lands heads much more often than coin 2.

Case 2: N = M, n1 = 2m1, 2n2 = m2

Now if we go through the algebra, we find:

F = 4N (4/27)(m1+n2) ~ 1.12N
So lnF ~ N ln(1.12) ~ .11 N
So AIC– AIC1 = 2 – .22N

This quantity is larger than 0 when N is less than 10, but then becomes smaller than zero for all other values.

Which means that for Case 2, small enough data sets still allow us to go with Model 1, but as we get more data, the predictive accuracy of Model 2 eventually wins out!

It’s worth pointing out here that the Akaike information criterion is an approximation to the technique of maximizing relative entropy, and this approximation assumes large sets of data. Given this, it’s not clear how reliable our estimate of 10 is for the largest data set.

Let’s do one last thing with our simple models.

As our two coins become more and more similar in how often they land heads, we expect Model 1 to last longer before Model 2 ultimately wins out. Let’s calculate a general relationship between the similarity in the ratios of heads to tails in coin 1 and coin 2 and the amount of time it takes for Model 1 to lose out.

Case 3: N = M, n1 = r·m1, r·n2 = m2

r here is our ratio of p/q – the chance of heads in coin 1 over the chance of heads in coin 2. Skipping ahead through the algebra we find:

lnF = N ln( 2 rr/(r+1) / (r + 1) )

Model 2 becomes preferable to Model 1 when AICbecomes smaller than AIC1, so we can find the critical point by setting ∆AIC = 2 – 2 lnF = 0

lnF = N ln( 2 rr/(r + 1) / (r + 1) ) = 1
N = 1 / ln( 2 rr/(r + 1) / (r + 1) )

We can see that as r goes to 1, N goes to ∞. We can see how quickly this happens by doing some asymptotics:

r = 1 + ε
N ~ 1 / ln(1 + ε)
So ε ~ e1/N – 1

N goes to infinity at an exponential rate as r approaches 1 linearly. This gives us a very rough idea of how similar our coins must be for us to treat them as essentially identical. We can use our earlier result that at r = 2, N = 10 to construct a table:

 r N 2 10 1.1 100 1.01 1000 1.001 10,000 1.0001 100,000

# Why you should be a Bayesian

In this post, I take Bayesianism to be the following normative epistemological claim: “You should treat your beliefs like probabilities, and reason according to the axioms of probability theory.”

Here are a few reasons why I support this claim:

# I. Logic is not enough

Reasoning deductively from premises to conclusion is a wonderfully powerful tool when it can be applied. If you have absolute certainty in some set of premises, and these premises entail a new conclusion, then you can extend your certainty to the new conclusion. Alternatively, you can state clearly the conditions under which you would be granted certain belief, in the form of a conditional argument (if you were to convince me that A and B are true, then I would believe that C is true).

This is great for mathematicians proving theorems about abstract logical entities. But in the real world, deductive inference is simply not enough to account for the types of problems we face. We are constantly reasoning in a condition of uncertainty, where we have multiple competing theories about what’s going on, and we seek evidence – partial evidence, not deductively complete evidence – as to which of these theories we should favor.

If you want to know how to form beliefs about the parts of reality that aren’t clear-cut and certain, then you need to go beyond pure logic.

# II. Probability theory is a natural extension of logic

Cox’s theorem shows that any system of plausible reasoning – modifying and updating beliefs in the presence of uncertainty – that is consistent with logic and a few minimal assumptions about normative reasoning is necessarily isomorphic to probability theory.

The converse of this is that any system of reasoning under uncertainty that isn’t ultimately functionally equivalent to Bayesianism is either logically inconsistent or violates other common-sense axioms of reasoning.

In other words, probability theory is the best candidate that we have for extending logic into the domain of the uncertain. It is about what is likely, not certain, to be true, and the way that we should update these assessments when receiving new information. In turn, probability theory contains ordinary logic as a special case when you take the limit of absolutely certainty.

# III. Non-Bayesian systems of plausible reasoning result in inconsistencies and irrational behavior

Dutch-book arguments prove that any agent that is violating the axioms of probability theory can be exploited by cleverly capitalizing on logical inconsistencies in their beliefs. This combines a pragmatic argument (non-Bayesians are worse off in the long run) with an epistemic argument (non-Bayesians are vulnerable to logical inconsistencies in their preferences).

The principle of maximizing entropy mandates a unique way to set beliefs given your evidence, such that you make no presumptions about knowledge that you don’t have. This principle is fully consistent with and equivalent to standard Bayesian conditionalization.

In other words, Bayesianism is about epistemic humility – it tells you to not pretend to know things that you don’t know.

# V. Bayesianism provides the foundations for the scientific method

The scientific method, needless to say, is humanity’s crowning epistemic achievement. With it we have invented medicine, probed atoms, and gone to the stars. Its success can be attributed to the structure of its method of investigating truth claims: in short, science is about searching theories for testable consequences, and then running experiments to update our beliefs in these theories.

This is all contained in Bayes’ rule, the fundamental law of probabilistic inference:

Pr(theory | evidence) ~ Pr(evidence | theory) · Pr(theory)

This rule tells you precisely how you should update your beliefs given your evidence, no more and no less. It contains the wisdom of empiricism that has revolutionized the world we live in.

# VI. Bayesianism is practically useful

So maybe you’re convinced that Bayesianism is right in principle. There’s a separate question of if Bayesianism is useful in practice. Maybe treating your beliefs like probabilities is like trying to do psychology starting from Schrödinger’s equation – possible in principle but practically infeasible, not to mention a waste of time.

But Bayesianism is practically useful.

Statistical mechanics, one of the most powerful branches of modern science, is built on a foundation of explicitly Bayesian principles. More generally, good statistical reasoning is incredibly useful across all domains of truth-seeking, and an essential skill for anybody that wants to understand the world.

And Bayesianism is not just useful for epistemic reasons. A fundamental ingredient of decision-making is the ability to produce accurate models of reality. If you want to effectively achieve your goals, whatever they are, you must be able to engage in careful probabilistic reasoning.

And finally, in my personal experience I have found Bayesian epistemology to be infinitely mineable for useful heuristics in thinking about philosophy, physics, altruism, psychology, politics, my personal life, and pretty much everything else. I recommend anybody whose interest has been sparked to check out the following links:

# Maximum Entropy and Bayes

The original method of Maximum Entropy, MaxEnt, was designed to assign probabilities on the basis of information in the form of constraints. It gradually evolved into a more general method, the method of Maximum relative Entropy (abbreviated ME), which allows one to update probabilities from arbitrary priors unlike the original MaxEnt which is restricted to updates from a uniform background measure.

The realization that ME includes not just MaxEnt but also Bayes’ rule as special cases is highly significant. First, it implies that ME is capable of reproducing every aspect of orthodox Bayesian inference and proves the complete compatibility of Bayesian and entropy methods. Second, it opens the door to tackling problems that could not be addressed by either the MaxEnt or orthodox Bayesian methods individually.

Giffin and Caticha
https://arxiv.org/pdf/0708.1593.pdf

I want to heap a little more praise on the principle of maximum entropy. Previously I’ve praised it as a solution to the problem of the priors – a way to decide what to believe when you are totally ignorant.

But it’s much much more than that. The procedure by which you maximize entropy is not only applicable in total ignorance, but is also applicable in the presence of partial information! So not only can we calculate the maximum entropy distribution given total ignorance, but we can also calculate the maximum entropy distribution given some set of evidence constraints.

That is, the principle of maximum entropy is not just a solution to the problem of the priors – it’s an entire epistemic framework in itself! It tells you what you should believe at any given moment, given any evidence that you have. And it’s better than Bayesianism in the sense that the question of priors never comes up – we maximize entropy when we don’t have any evidence just like we do when we do have evidence! There is no need for a special case study of the zero-evidence limit.

But a natural question arises – if the principle of maximum entropy and Bayes’ rule are both self-contained procedures for updating your beliefs in the face of evidence, are these two procedures consistent?

Anddd the answer is, yes! They’re perfectly consistent. Bayes’ rule leads you from one set of beliefs to the set of beliefs that are maximally uncertain under the new information you receive.

This post will be proving that Bayes’ rule arises naturally from maximizing entropy after you receive evidence.

But first, let me point out that we’re making a slight shift in our definition of entropy, as suggested in the quote I started this post with. Rather than maximizing the entropy S(P) = – ∫ P log(P) dx, we will maximize the relative entropy:

Srel(P, Pold) = – ∫ P log(P / Pold) dx.

The relative entropy is much more general than the ordinary entropy – it serves as a way to compare entropies of distributions, and gives a simple way to talk about the change in uncertainty from a previous distribution to a new one. Intuitively, it is the additional information that is required to specify P, once you’ve already specified Pold. You can think of it in terms of surprisal: Srel(P, Q) is how much more surprised you will be if P is true and you believe Q than if P is true and you believe P.

You might be concerned that this function no longer has the nice properties of entropy that we discussed earlier – the only possible function for consistently representing uncertainty. But these worries aren’t warranted. If some set of initial constraints give Pold as the maximum-entropy distribution, then the function that maximizes relative entropy with just the new constraints will be the same as the function that maximizes entropy with the new constraints and the value of your prior distribution as an additional constraint.

Okay, so from now on whenever I talk about entropy, I’m talking about relative entropy. I’ll just denote it by S as usual, instead of writing out Srel every time. We’ll now prove that the prescribed change in your beliefs upon receiving the results of an experiment is the same under Bayesian conditionalization as it is under maximum entropy.

Say that our probability distribution is over the possible values of some parameter A and the possible results of an experiment that will tell us the value of X. Thus our initial model of reality can be written as:

Pinit(A = a, X = x), and
Pinit(A = a) = ∫ dx Pinit(A = a | X = x) P(X = x)

Which we’ll rewrite for ease of notation as:

Pinit(a, x), and
Pinit(a) = ∫ Pinit(a | x) P(x) dx

Ordinary Bayesian conditionalization says that when we receive the information that the experiment returned the result X = x’, we update our probabilities as follows:

Pnew(a) = Pinit(a | x’)

What does the principle of maximum entropy say to do? It prescribes the following algorithm:

Maximize the value of S = – ∫ da dx P(a, x) log( P(a,x) / Pinit(a, x) )
with the following constraints:
Constraint 1: ∫ da dx P(a, x) = 1
Constraint 2: P(x) = δ(x – x’)

Constraint 2 represents the experimental information that our new probability distribution over X is zero everywhere except for at X = x’, and that we are certain that the value of X is x’. Notice that it is actually an infinite number of constraints – one for each value of X.

We will rewrite Constraint 2 so that it is of the same form as the entropy function and the first constraint:

Constraint 2: ∫ da P(a, x) = δ(x – x’)

The method of Lagrange multipliers tells us how to solve this equation!

First, define a new quantity A as follows:

A = S + Constraint 1 + Constraint 2
= – ∫ da dx P log(P/Pinit) + α · [ ∫ da dx P – 1 ] + ∫ dx β(x) · [ ∫ da P – δ(x – x’) ]

Now we solve!

∆A = 0
P ∫ da dx [ – P log(P/Pinit) + α P + β(x) P] = 0
P [ – P log P + P log Pinit + α P + β(x) P ] = 0
-log Pnew – 1 + log Pinit + α + β(x) = 0
Pnew(a, x) = Pinit(a, x) · eβ(x)/Z

Z is our normalization constant, and we can find β(x) by applying Constraint 2:

Constraint 2: ∫ da P(a, x) = δ(x – x’)
∫ da Pinit(a, x) · eβ(x)/Z = δ(x – x’)
Pinit(x) · eβ(x)/Z = δ(x – x’)

And finally, we can plug in:

Pnew(a, x) = Pinit(a, x) · eβ(x) / Z
= Pinit(a | x) · Pinit(x) · eβ(x) / Z
= Pinit(a | x) · δ(x – x’)
So Pnew(a) = Pinit(a | x’)

Exactly the same as Bayesian conditionalization!!

What’s so great about this is that the principle of maximum entropy is an entire theory of normative epistemology in its own right, and it’s equivalent to Bayesianism, AND it has no problem of the priors!

If you’re a Bayesian, then you know what to do when you encounter new evidence, as long as you already have a prior in hand. But when somebody asks you how you should choose the prior that you have… well then you’re stumped, or have to appeal to some other prior-setting principle outside of Bayes’ rule.

But if you ask a maximum-entropy theorist how they got their priors, they just answer: “The same way I got all of my other beliefs! I just maximize my uncertainty, subject to the information that I possess as constraints. I don’t need any special consideration for the situation in which I possess no information – I just maximize entropy with no constraints at all!”

I think this is wonderful. It’s also really aesthetic. The principle of maximum entropy says that you should be honest about your uncertainty. You should choose your beliefs in such a way as to ensure that you’re not pretending to know anything that you don’t know. And there is a single unique way to do this – by maximizing the function ∫ P log P.

Any other distribution you might choose represents a decision to pretend that you know things that you don’t know – and maximum entropy says that you should never do this. It’s an epistemological framework built on the virtue of humility!

# Principle of Maximum Entropy

Previously, I talked about the principle of maximum entropy as the basis of statistical mechanics, and gave some intuitive justifications for it. In this post I want to present a more rigorous justification.

Our goal is to find a function that uniquely quantifies the amount of uncertainty that there is in our model of reality. I’m going to use very minimal assumptions, and will point them out as I use them.

***

Here’s the setup. There are N boxes, and you know that a ball is in one of them. We’ll label the possible locations of the ball as:

B1, B2, B3, … BN
where Bn = “The ball is in box n”

The full state of our knowledge about which box the ball is in will be represented by a probability distribution.

(P1, P2, P3, … PN)
where Pn = the probability that the ball is in box n

Our ultimate goal is to uniquely prescribe an uncertainty measure S that will take in the distribution P and return a numerical value.

S(P1, P2, P3, … PN)

Our first assumption is that this function is continuous. When you make arbitrarily small changes to your distribution, you don’t get discontinuous jumps in your entropy. We’ll use this in a few minutes.

We’ll start with a simpler case than the general distribution – a uniform distribution, where the ball is equally likely to be in any of the N boxes.

For all n, Pn = 1/N

We’ll give the entropy of a uniform distribution a special name, labeled U for ‘uniform’:

S(1/N, 1/N, …, 1/N) = U(N)

Our next and final assumption is going to relate to the way that we combine our knowledge. In words, it will be that the uncertainty of a given distribution should be the same, regardless of how we represent the distribution. We’ll lay this out more formally in a moment.

Before that, imagine enclosing our boxes in M different containers, like this:

Now we can represent the same state of knowledge as our original distribution by specifying first the probability that the ball is in a given container, and then the probability that it is in a given box, given that it is in that container.

Qn = probability that the ball is in container n
Pm|n = probability that the ball is in box m, given that it’s in container n

Notice that the value of each Qn is just the number of boxes in the container divided by the total number of boxes. In addition, the conditional probability that the ball is in box m, given that it’s in container n, is just one over the number of boxes in the container. We’ll write these relationships as

Qn = |Cn| / N
Pm|n = 1 / |Cn|

The point of all this is that we can now formalize our third assumption. Our initial state of knowledge was given by a single distribution Pn. Now it is given by two distributions: Qn and Pm|n.

Since these represent the same amount of knowledge about which container the box is in, the entropy of each should be the same.

And in general:

Initial entropy = S(1/N, 1/N, …, 1/N) = U(N)
Final entropy = S(Q1, Q2, …, QM) + ∑i Qi · S(P1|i, P2|i, …, PN|i)
= S(Q1, Q2, …, QM) + ∑i Qi · U(|Ci|)

The form of this final entropy is the substance of the uncertainty combination rule. First you compute the uncertainty of each individual distribution. Then you add them together, but weight each one by the probability that you encounter that uncertainty.

Why? Well, a conditional probability like Pm|n represents the probability that the ball is in box m, given that it’s in container n. You will only have to consider this probability if you discover that the ball is in container n, which happens with probability Qn.

With this, we’re almost finished.

First of all, notice that we have the following equality:

S(Q1, Q2, …, QM) = U(N) – ∑i [ Qi · U(|Ci|) ]

In other words, if we determine the general form of the function U, then we will have uniquely determined the entropy S for any arbitrary distribution!

And we can determine the general form of the function U by making a final simplification: assume that the containers all contain an equal number of boxes.

This means that Qn will be a uniform distribution over the M possible containers. And if there are M containers and N boxes, then this means that each container contains N/M boxes.

For all n, Qn = 1/M and |Cn| = N/M

If we plug this all in, we get that:

S(1/M, 1/M, …, 1/M) = U(N) – ∑i [1/M · U(N/M)]
U(M) = U(N) – U(N/M)
U(N/M) = U(N) – U(M)

There is only one continuous function that satisfies this equation, and it is the logarithm:

U(N) = K log(N) for some constant K

And we have uniquely determined the form of our entropy function, up to a constant factor K!

S(Q1, Q2, …, QM) = K log(N)  –  K ∑i Qi log(| Ci |)
= – K ∑i Qi log(| Ci |/N)
= – K ∑i Qi log(Qi)

If we add as a third assumption that U(N) should be monotonically increasing with N (that is, more boxes means more uncertainty, not less), then we can also specify that K should be a positive constant.

The three basic assumptions from which we can find the form of the entropy:

1. S(P) is a continuous function of P.
2. S should assign the same uncertainty to different representations of the same information.
3. The entropy of a wide uniform distribution is greater than the entropy of a thin uniform distribution.

# Statistical mechanics is wonderful

The law that entropy always increases, holds, I think, the supreme position among the laws of Nature. If someone points out to you that your pet theory of the universe is in disagreement with Maxwell’s equations — then so much the worse for Maxwell’s equations. If it is found to be contradicted by observation — well, these experimentalists do bungle things sometimes. But if your theory is found to be against the second law of thermodynamics I can give you no hope; there is nothing for it but to collapse in deepest humiliation.

– Eddington

My favorite part of physics is statistical mechanics.

This wasn’t the case when it was first presented to me – it seemed fairly ugly and complicated compared to the elegant and deep formulations of classical mechanics and quantum mechanics. There were too many disconnected rules and special cases messily bundled together to match empirical results. Unlike the rest of physics, I failed to see the same sorts of deep principles motivating the equations we derived.

Since then I’ve realized that I was completely wrong. I’ve come to appreciate it as one of the deepest parts of physics I know, and mentally categorize it somewhere in the intersection of physics, math, and philosophy.

This post is an attempt to convey how statistical mechanics connects these fields, and to show concisely how some of the standard equations of statistical mechanics arise out of deep philosophical principles.

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The fundamental goal of statistical mechanics is beautiful. It answers the question “How do we apply our knowledge of the universe on the tiniest scale to everyday life?”

In doing so, it bridges the divide between questions about the fundamental nature of reality (What is everything made of? What types of interactions link everything together?) and the types of questions that a ten-year old might ask (Why is the sky blue? Why is the table hard? What is air made of? Why are some things hot and others cold?).

Statistical mechanics peeks at the realm of quarks and gluons and electrons, and then uses insights from this realm to understand the workings of the world on a scale a factor of 1021 larger.

Wilfrid Sellars described philosophy as an attempt to reconcile the manifest image (the universe as it presents itself to us, as a world of people and objects and purposes and values), and the scientific image (the universe as revealed to us by scientific inquiry, empty of purpose, empty of meaning, and animated by simple exact mathematical laws that operate like clockwork). This is what I see as the fundamental goal of statistical mechanics.

What is incredible to me is how elegantly it manages to succeed at this. The universality and simplicity of the equations of statistical mechanics are astounding, given the type of problem we’re dealing with. Physicists would like to say that once they’ve figured out the fundamental equations of physics, then we understand the whole universe. Rutherford said that “all science is either physics or stamp collecting.” But you try to take some laws that tell you how two electrons interact, and then answer questions about how 1023 electrons will behave when all crushed together.

The miracle is that we can do this, and not only can we do it, but we can do it with beautiful, simple equations that are loaded with physical insight.

There’s an even deeper connection to philosophy. Statistical mechanics is about epistemology. (There’s a sense in which all of science is part of epistemology. I don’t mean this. I mean that I think of statistical mechanics as deeply tied to the philosophical foundations of epistemology.)

Statistical mechanics doesn’t just tell us what the world should look like on the scale of balloons and oceans and people. Some of the most fundamental concepts in statistical mechanics are ultimately about our state of knowledge about the world. It contains precise laws telling us what we can know about the universe, what we should believe, how we should deal with uncertainty, and how this uncertainty is structured in the physical laws.

While the rest of physics searches for perfect objectivity (taking the “view from nowhere”, in Nagel’s great phrase), statistical mechanics has one foot firmly planted in the subjective. It is an epistemological framework, a theory of physics, and a piece of beautiful mathematics all in one.

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Enough gushing.

I want to express some of these deep concepts I’ve been referring to.

First of all, statistical mechanics is fundamentally about probability.

It accepts that trying to keep track of the positions and velocities of 1023 particles all interacting with each other is futile, regardless of how much you know about the equations guiding their motion.

And it offers a solution: Instead of trying to map out all of the particles, let’s course-grain our model of the universe and talk about the likelihood that a given particle is in a given position with a given velocity.

As soon as we do this, our theory is no longer just about the universe in itself, it is also about us, and our model of the universe. Equations in statistical mechanics are not only about external objective features of the world; they are also about properties of the map that we use to describe it.

This is fantastic and I think really under-appreciated. When we talk about the results of the theory, we must keep in mind that these results must be interpreted in this joint way. I’ve seen many misunderstandings arise from failures of exactly this kind, like when people think of entropy as a purely physical quantity and take the second law of thermodynamics to be solely a statement about the world.

But I’m getting ahead of myself.

Statistical mechanics is about probability. So if we have a universe consisting of N = 1080 particles, then we will create a function P that assigns a probability to every possible position for each of these particles at a given moment:

P(x1, y1, z1, x2, y2, z2, …, xN, yN, zN)

P is a function of 3•1080 values… this looks super complicated. Where’s all this elegance and simplicity I’ve been gushing about? Just wait.

The second fundamental concept in statistical mechanics is entropy. I’m going to spend way too much time on this, because it’s really misunderstood and really important.

Entropy is fundamentally a measure of uncertainty. It takes in a model of reality and returns a numerical value. The larger this value, the more coarse-grained your model of reality is. And as this value approaches zero, your model approaches perfect certainty.

Notice: Entropy is not an objective feature of the physical world!! Entropy is a function of your model of reality. This is very very important.

So how exactly do we define the entropy function?

Say that a masked inquisitor tells you to close your eyes and hands you a string of twenty 0s and 1s. They then ask you what your uncertainty is about the exact value of the string.

If you don’t have any relevant background knowledge about this string, then you have no reason to suspect that any letter in the string is more likely to be a 0 than a 1 or vice versa. So perhaps your model places equal likelihood in every possible string. (This corresponds to a probability of ½ • ½ • … • ½ twenty times, or 1/220).

The entropy of this model is 20.

Now your inquisitor allows you to peek at only the first number in the string, and you see that it is a 1.

By the same reasoning, your model is now an equal distribution of likelihoods over all strings that start with 1.

The entropy of this model? 19.

If now the masked inquisitor tells you that he has added five new numbers at the end of your string, the entropy of your new model will be 24.

The idea is that if you are processing information right, then every time you get a single bit of information, your entropy should decrease by exactly 1. And every time you “lose” a bit of information, your entropy should increase by exactly 1.

In addition, when you have perfect knowledge, your entropy should be zero. This means that the entropy of your model can be thought of as the number of pieces of binary information you would have to receive to have perfect knowledge.

How do we formalize this?

Well, your initial model (back when there were 20 numbers and you had no information about any of them) gave each outcome a probability of P = 1/220. How do we get a 20 out of this? Simple!

Entropy = S = log2(1/P)

(Yes, entropy is denoted by S. Why? Don’t ask me, I didn’t invent the notation! But you’ll get used to it.)

We can check if this formula still works out right when we get new information. When we learned that the first number was a 1, half of our previous possibilities disappeared. Given that the others are all still equally likely, our new probabilities for each should double from 1/220 to 1/219.

And S = log2(1/(1/219)) = log2(219) = 19. Perfect!

What if you now open your eyes and see the full string? Well now your probability distribution is 0 over all strings except the one you see, which has probability 1.

So S = log2(1/1) = log2(1) = 0. Zero entropy corresponds to perfect information.

This is nice, but it’s a simple idealized case. What if we only get partial information? What if the masked stranger tells you that they chose the numbers by running a process that 80% of the time returns 0 and 20% of the time returns 1, and you’re fifty percent sure they’re lying?

In general, we want our entropy function to be able to handle models more sophisticated than just uniform distributions with equal probabilities for every event. Here’s how.

We can write out any arbitrary probability distribution over N binary events as follows:

(P1, P2, …, PN)

As we’ve seen, if they were all equal then we would just find the entropy according to previous equation: S = log2(1/P).

But if they’re not equal, then we can just find the weighted average! In other words:

S = mean(log2(1/P)) =∑ Pn log2(1/Pn)

We can put this into the standard form by noting that log(1/P) = -log(P).

And we have our general definition of entropy!

For discrete probabilities: S = – ∑ Plog Pn
For continuous probabilities: S = – ∫ P(x) log P(x) dx

(Aside: Physicists generally use a natural logarithm instead of log2 when they define entropy. This is just a difference in convention: e pops up more in physics and 2 in information theory. It’s a little weird, because now when entropy drops by 1 this means you’ve excluded 1/e of the options, instead of ½. But it makes equations much nicer.)

We’ve already seen that entropy is a measure of how much you know. When you have perfect and complete knowledge, your model has entropy zero. And the more uncertainty you have, the more entropy you have.

You can visualize entropy as a measure of the size of your probability distribution. Some examples you can calculate for yourself using the above equations:

Roughly, when you double the “size” of your probability distribution, you increase its entropy by 1.

But what does it mean to double the size of your probability distribution? It means that there are two times as many possibilities as you initially thought – which is equivalent to you losing one piece of binary information! This is exactly the connection between these two different ways of thinking about entropy.

Third: (I won’t name it yet so as to not ruin the surprise). This is so important that I should have put it earlier, but I couldn’t have because I needed to introduce entropy first.

So I’ve been sneakily slipping in an assumption throughout the last paragraphs. This is that when you don’t have any knowledge about the probability of a set of events, you should act as if all events are equally likely.

This might seem like a benign assumption, but it’s responsible for god-knows how many hours of heated academic debate. Here’s the problem: sure it seems intuitive to say that 0 and 1 are equally likely. But that itself is just one of many possibilities. Maybe 0 comes up 57% of the time, or maybe 34%. It’s not like you have any knowledge that tells you that 0 and 1 are objectively equally likely, so why should you favor that hypothesis?

Statistical mechanics answers this by just postulating a general principle: Look at the set of all possible probability distributions, calculate the entropy of each of them, and then choose the one with the largest entropy.

In cases where you have literally no information (like our earlier inquisitor-string example), this principle becomes the principle of indifference: spread your credences evenly among the possibilities. (Prove it yourself! It’s a fun proof.)

But as a matter of fact, this principle doesn’t only apply to cases where you have no information. If you have partial or incomplete information, you apply the exact same principle by looking at the set of probability distributions that are consistent with this information and maximizing entropy.

This principle of maximum entropy is the foundational assumption of statistical mechanics. And it is a purely epistemic assumption. It is a normative statement about how you should rationally divide up your credences in the absence of information.

Said another way, statistical mechanics prescribes an answer to the problem of the priors, the biggest problem haunting Bayesian epistemologists. If you want to treat your beliefs like probabilities and update them with evidence, you have to have started out with an initial level of belief before you had any evidence. And what should that prior probability be?

Statistical mechanics says: It should be the probability that maximizes your entropy. And statistical mechanics is one of the best-verified and most successful areas of science. Somehow this is not loudly shouted in the pages of every text on Bayesianism.

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So we have our setup for statistical mechanics.

1. Coarse-grain your model of reality by constructing a probability distribution over all possible microstates of the world.
2. Construct this probability distribution according to the principle of maximum entropy.

Okay! So going back to our world of N = 1080 particles jostling each other around, we now know how to construct our probability distribution P(x1, …, xN). (I’ve made the universe one-dimensional for no good reason except to pretty it up – everything I say follows exactly the same if I left it in 3D. I’ll also start writing the set of all N coordinates as X, again for prettiness.)

What probability distribution maximizes S = – ∫ P logP dX?

We can solve this with the method of Lagrange multipliers:

P [ P logP + λP ] = 0,
where λ is chosen to satisfy: ∫ P dX = 1

This is such a nice equation and you should do yourself a favor and learn it, because I’m not going to explain it (if I explained everything, this post would become a textbook!).

But it essentially maximizes the value of S, subject to the constraint that the total probability is 1. When we solve it we find:

P(x1, …, xN) = 1/VN, where V is the volume of the universe

Remember earlier when I said to just wait for the probability equation to get simple?

Okay, so this is simple, but it’s also not very useful. It tells us that every particle has an equal probability of being in any equally sized region of space. But we want to know more. Like, are the higher energy particles distributed differently than the lower energy?

The great thing about statistical mechanics is that if you want a better model, you can just feed in more information to your distribution.

So let’s say we want to find the probability distribution, given two pieces of information: (1) we know the energy of every possible configuration of particles, and (2) the average total energy of the universe is fixed.

That is, we have a function E(x1, …, xN) that tells us energies, and we know that the total energy E = ∫ P(x1, …, xN)•E(x1, …, xN) dX is fixed.

So how do we find our new P? Using the same method as before:

P [ P logP + λP + βEP ] = 0,
where λ is chosen to satisfy: ∫ P dX = 1
and β is chosen to satisfy: ∫ P•E dX = E

This might look intimidating, but it’s really not. I’ll write out how to solve this:

P [P logP + λP + βEP) ]
= logP + 1 + λ + βE = 0
So P = e-(1+λ) • e-βE
Renaming our first term, we get:
P(X) = 1/Z • e-βE(X)

This result is called the Boltzmann distribution, and it’s one of the incredibly important must-know equations of statistical mechanics. The amount of physics you can do with just this one equation is staggering. And we got it by just adding conservation of energy to the principle of maximum entropy.

Maybe you’re disturbed by the strange new symbols Z and β that have appeared in the equation. Don’t fear! Z is simply a normalization constant: it’s there to keep the probability of the total distribution at 1. We can calculate it explicitly:

Z = ∫ e-βE dX

And β is really interesting. Notice that β came into our equations because we had to satisfy this extra constraint about a fixed total energy. Is there some nice physical significance to this quantity?

Yes, very much so. β is what we humans like to call ‘temperature’, or more precisely, inverse temperature.

β = 1/T

While avoiding the math, I can just say the following: Temperature is defined to be the change in the energy of a system when you change its entropy a little bit. (This definition is much more general than the special case definition of temperature as average kinetic energy)

And it turns out that when you manipulate the above equations a little bit, you see that ∂SE = 1/β = T.

So we could rewrite our probability distribution as follows:

P(X) = 1/Z • e-E(X)/T

Feed in your fundamental laws of physics to the energy function, and you can see the distribution of particles across the universe!

Let’s just look at the basic properties of this equation. First of all, we can see that the larger E(X)/T becomes, the smaller the probability of a particle being in X becomes. This corresponds both to particles scattering away from high-energy regions and to less densely populated systems having lower temperatures.

And the smaller E(X)/T, the larger P(X). This corresponds to particles densely clustering in low-energy areas, and dense clusters of particles having high temperatures.

There are too many other things I could say about this equation and others, and this post is already way too long. I want to close with a final note about the nature of entropy.

I said earlier that entropy is entirely a function of your model of reality. The universe doesn’t have an entropy. You have a model of the universe, and that model has an entropy. Regardless of what physical reality is like, if I hand you a model, you can tell me its entropy.

But at the same time, models of reality are linked to the nature of the physical world. So for instance, a very simple and predictable universe lends itself to very precise and accurate models of reality, and thus to lower-entropy models. And a very complicated and chaotic universe lends itself to constant loss of information and low-accuracy models, and thus to higher entropy.

It is this second world that we live in. Due to the structure of the universe, information is constantly being lost to us at enormous rates. Systems that start out simple eventually spiral off into chaotic and unpredictable patterns, and order in the universe is only temporary.

It is in this sense that statements about entropy are statements about physical reality. And it is for this reason that entropy always increases.

In principle, an omnipotent and omniscient agent could track the positions of all particles at all times, and this agent’s model of the universe would be always perfectly accurate, with entropy zero. For this agent, the entropy of the universe would never rise.

And yet for us, as we look at the universe, we seem to constantly and only see entropy-increasing interactions.

This might seem counterintuitive or maybe even impossible to you. How could the entropy rise to one agent and stay constant for another?

Imagine an ice cube sitting out on a warm day. The ice cube is in a highly ordered and understandable state. We could sit down and write out a probability distribution, taking into account the crystalline structure of the water molecules and the shape of the cube, and have a fairly low-entropy and accurate description of the system.

But now the ice cube starts to melt. What happens? Well, our simple model starts to break down. We start losing track of where particles are going, and having trouble predicting what the growing puddle of water will look like. And by the end of the transition, when all that’s left is a wide spread-out wetness across the table, our best attempts to describe the system will inevitably remain higher-entropy than what we started with.

Our omniscient agent looks at the ice cube and sees all the particles exactly where they are. There is no mystery to him about what will happen next – he knows exactly how all the water molecules are interacting with one another, and can easily determine which will break their bonds first. What looked like an entropy-increasing process to us was an entropy-neutral process to him, because his model never lost any accuracy.

We saw the puddle as higher-entropy, because we started doing poorly at modeling it. And our models started performing poorly, because the system got too complex for our models.

In this sense, entropy is not just a physical quantity, it is an epistemic quantity. It is both a property of the world and a property of our model of the world. The statement that the entropy of the universe increases is really the statement that the universe becomes harder for our models to compute over time.

Which is a really substantive statement. To know that we live in the type of universe that constantly increases in entropy is to know a lot about the way that the universe operates.

More reading here if you’re interested!